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Probability of Triggers on Cruel Somnophage // Can't Wake Up
Two faces, one thrilling math problem. Cruel Somnophage // Can't Wake Up arrives in Wilds of Eldraine as an Adventure card that challenges your intuition about probability and graveyard dynamics. The front face, Cruel Somnophage, is a Nightmare whose power and toughness are not fixed but equal to the number of creature cards in all graveyards. The back face, Can't Wake Up, is the Adventure that mills four cards from a target player's library and then exiles this card so you may cast the creature later from exile. The result? Every milling moment is not just a tempo play—it’s a potential power spike for a nightmare that feeds on what’s in the graveyards. 🧙🔥💎
The mechanics you actually measure
Let’s anchor our thinking in concrete terms. The Somnophage’s P/T is determined by creature cards in all graveyards. Tokens and non-card permanents don’t count toward that tally; only literal creature cards residing in graveyards across all players matter. When you cast the Adventure, four cards move from the target’s library to their graveyard. If any of those four are creature cards, they increase the total number of creature cards in graveyards, and thus can push Somnophage’s P/T higher on future turns. It’s a card that rewards careful calculation and a bit of meta-reading about what your opponents actually run. ⚔️
A simple probabilistic model you can actually use at the table
Imagine a basic, teachable model: the four milled cards come from a single target player’s library, and a fraction f of that deck’s cards are creatures. Then the number K of creature cards milled follows a Binomial distribution with parameters n = 4 and p = f. In other words, K is the count of creature cards among those four milled cards, and Somnophage’s P/T increases by K after the milling happens.
Probability distribution for K (four draws, independent, identical creature-density f):
- P(K = k) = C(4, k) · f^k · (1 - f)^(4 - k) for k in {0,1,2,3,4}
Here are a few practical scenarios with rough numbers you can carry into your next match. These assume a stable creature density f in the target’s library (which will, of course, shift as cards move to graveyards or as players mulligan and fetch):
- Moderate creature density (f ≈ 0.25):
- P(K = 0) ≈ 0.316
- P(K = 1) ≈ 0.422
- P(K = 2) ≈ 0.211
- P(K = 3) ≈ 0.047
- P(K = 4) ≈ 0.004
- Expected K ≈ 1.0
- Implication: on average, you’ll add one creature to graveyards with that four-card mill, nudging Somnophage’s P/T upward by about one notch each time the Adventure lands.
- Creature-heavy decks in the field (f ≈ 0.40):
- P(K = 0) ≈ 0.13
- P(K = 1) ≈ 0.35
- P(K = 2) ≈ 0.35
- P(K = 3) ≈ 0.15
- P(K = 4) ≈ 0.03
- Expected K ≈ 1.6
- Implication: you’re looking at a meaningful chance of popping two or more creatures into graveyards per milling, dialing up Somnophage’s power more aggressively over time.
- Creature-sparse decks (f ≈ 0.15):
- P(K = 0) ≈ 0.52
- P(K = 1) ≈ 0.37
- P(K = 2) ≈ 0.10
- P(K = 3) ≈ 0.01
- P(K = 4) ≈ 0.001
- Expected K ≈ 0.6
- Implication: you’ll often see only a single creature enter the graveyards per cast, but that still compounds as multiple players mill over the course of a game.
As you can see, the math is friendly but real: the exact triggers depend on the evolving composition of each library and graveyard, and some table talk about “what’s in their deck” becomes part of your gameplay strategy. And since Somnophage counts creature cards across all graveyards, the dynamic can snowball—especially in longer games with heavy milling or reanimation elements. 🎲
Real-world dynamics you’ll actually face
In practical terms, the probability of a meaningful Somnophage boost hinges on a few factors:
- How aggressively you mill: the more frequently you cast the Adventure, the more opportunities Somnophage has to grow. The exile-and-cast-from-exile option adds late-game inevitability for the creature face.
- How much milling you do to your own graveyard versus opponents’ graves: if you self-mill, you gain predictable increments; milling opponents can create surprise power spikes, but you also alter the battlefield's tempo.
- The presence of ways to recur or reanimate creature cards from exile or graveyards: this can translate a modest probability into sustained pressure as the Somnophage keeps growing.
- Tokens and non-creature permanents don’t count toward the P/T calculation, so your board state isn’t automatically “sculpted” by what’s on the battlefield unless it changes the count of creature cards in graveyards.
As you pilot Cruel Somnophage, you’re not just playing a big body; you’re conducting a probabilistic ballet. Your opponents are milling their own way into your future threats, and your own mill plan quietly feeds the monster inside the card’s front face. It’s a delightful blend of math, strategy, and a little Eldraine whimsy. 🧙🔥
Deckbuilding tips to tilt the odds your way
- Integrate self-mill and graveyard-centric effects to reliably increase creature counts in your own graveyard, amplifying Somnophage’s baseline power.
- Include reanimation or flashback possibilities so you can recoup the Somnophage after you exile it, maintaining pressure and maximizing the impact of each Adventure cast.
- Combine with effects that reveal or manipulate creature counts in graveyards, giving you more informed reads on f and the likelihood of big swings.
- Remember the two-face design: while you lean into the Adventure’s milling power, you’re also maximizing the potential for a late-game threat that scales with every creature card that lands in graveyards.
Some players build around inevitability; others around surprise. Cruel Somnophage rewards both, so long as you’re tracking the math behind the mill. And if you need a tactile break from numbers, there’s always something shiny on the table to keep the spirit bright. 🎨
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