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Probability and the battlefield: Wei Assassins in MTG odds analysis 🔎🧙♂️
There are cards that feel like a math problem and a duel at the same time—Wei Assassins is one of them. This Portal Three Kingdoms gem lands on the battlefield with a sturdy body for five mana and a very specific, very spicy ETB effect: when it enters, your opponent is forced to pick a creature they control and you destroy that creature. The mechanic is simple on the surface, but the practical odds behind “will this trigger do something meaningful this game?” are where the fun begins. In the MTG odds world, you’re not just counting worms and Ziploc bags; you’re counting creatures, board states, and how often your opponent actually has something worth destroying. 🧙♂️🔥💎
What exactly happens when Wei Assassins enters the battlefield?
The card costs {3}{B}{B}, a five-mana black creature with a 3/2 body. Its oracle text reads: “When this creature enters, target opponent chooses a creature they control. Destroy that creature.” That “enters” trigger is a true ETB moment: the prompt to choose a target creature is made by your opponent as the ability resolves. If the opponent has zero creatures, they cannot choose one, and the spell effectively does nothing beyond the entrail drama of a big, angry 3/2 hitting the battlefield. If they do have creatures, you get a tempo win—one of their creatures vanishes, and you pay five mana to punch a hole in their board. The moment is both a tempo swing and a test of how comfortable you are with a delayed payoff. ⚔️
Estimating the odds: when will a removal actually land?
Because the trigger itself always resolves once Wei Assassins ETBs, the real question is: do they have a creature to destroy? In a vacuum, the odds hinge on how your games tend to develop. Here are practical, rule-of-thumb ranges you can use in casual games to gauge the likelihood of a successful removal at the moment Wei hits the battlefield:
: If your opponent is playing a lean, creature-light strategy or you’re facing a control curve, there’s a decent chance they have zero creatures on the battlefield by the time you cast Wei. Expect roughly 40–60% odds that at least one creature exists to be destroyed, depending on their deck density. 🔥 : In a typical 60-card deck with 20–24 creatures, most opponents have found at least one creature by now, especially in a three- or four-player pod. The chance that Wei’s ETB successfully removes something increases to about 60–85% in many casual contexts. If you’re facing aggro or midrange builds, you’ll see the higher end of that spectrum more often. 💎 : As boards fill, the probability that someone has a creature on the field skyrockets. In most multiplayer games, you’ll routinely connect with a removal trigger on Wei, with odds often in the 85–95% neighborhood as long as the game hasn’t collapsed under mass removal or board wipes. 🎨
Of course, these numbers are rough heuristics. The exact probability depends on your playgroup’s deck archetypes, mulligans, and how aggressively players deploy creatures. If you’re in a dedicated creature-light control mirror, the hit rate can drop; if you’re in a creature-smashing tribal cluster, it climbs quickly. And in multiplayer, the odds compound—there are more players, more creatures, and more chances for Wei to collect a piece of the action. 🧙♂️
Strategic takeaways: how to squeeze value from the math
Wei Assassins isn’t just a value engine; it’s a pulse-check on the battlefield. Here are ways to optimize its probabilistic payoff in your deckbuilding and play:
- Tilt the board toward guaranteed landings: Include a mix of value threats and removal so Wei’s ETB fuels a two-for-one tempo swing when it lands and triggers. If your plan is to blink Wei later, you turn a single damage spell into repeated pressurized threats. ⚔️
- Flicker and recast potential: In formats that allow flicker effects or reanimation, Wei Assassins can re-enter the battlefield multiple times with a consistent chance to remove a creature on each ETB. Recasting becomes a mini-win condition, especially in slower formats where late-game inevitability matters. 🎲
- Target the right games: Wei is most effective in boards where opponents rely on a few key creatures. If you can force the destruction of a single, skewed piece—like a commander’s favorite finisher or a strong blocker—you swing the board state in your favor while drawing tempo and momentum. 🔥
- Protect the play with countermagic and disruption: Since the trigger is a confirmed event when Wei enters, you can pair it with counterspells and discard to stretch your fragile five-mana investment into a longer-term advantage. A failed counter or a miss on the destroy target still teaches your opponent a lesson in tax and timing. 🧙♂️💎
Lore, art, and the vibe of Portal Three Kingdoms
Wei Assassins hails from Portal Three Kingdoms, a set famous for weaving Chinese history into Magic’s multiverse tapestry. The name "Wei" invokes a kingdom with shadowy intrigues, and the card’s flavor text, artwork by Xu Tan, and the stark white border framing hark back to that era’s martial drama. The art captures a poised assassin, and the mechanical bite matches the narrative: a sudden, decisive strike that can reshape a round. The rarity is uncommon, and the set’s "starter" nature makes it a nostalgia target for collectors who remember a time when dug-up creatures and named factions carried extra cultural weight. 🎨⚔️
Value on the table: price, rarity, and why Wei still matters
As a nostalgia-driven pick, Wei Assassins sits in the uncommon range with a price tag around USD 8.76 (according to current market data) and modest European pricing as well. While it isn’t the oldest or flashiest black creature in a vacuum, its ETB removal ability remains a fun case study in how a single triggered event can pivot momentum in a game. For players building a Portal-era or legacy-leaning cube, this card offers a memorable combo hook: a clean, decisive hit that can be reproduced with flicker or recast effects to keep the pressure up. The card’s 3/2 body for five mana is reasonable—enough to present a real threat, but not so large that it steals all the focus from your other threats. 🧙♂️💎🎲
Deck-building snapshot and practical play example
Imagine a midrange black control shell that curves into Wei Assassins on turn five. Your opponent has a few creatures on the board and a couple more in hand. Wei resolves; they must choose a creature they control. If they have multiple options, they’ll likely sacrifice their least valuable creature, which buys you tempo and potentially removes something like a problematic blocker or a removal anchor. If you’re lucky and the board is sparse, the effect might fizzle, but that doesn’t negate Wei’s value; the information gained and the pressure created still tilt the game in your favor. And if you can blink Wei or recur it, you’re looking at multiple opportunities to erase threats across the same game, turning a single draw into sustained advantage. 🧙♂️🔥
For fans who enjoy blending style with substance, Wei Assassins delivers. It’s a card that rewards thoughtful timing, intelligent reading of the battlefield, and a dash of luck with the card draw. If you’re coordinating a desk setup worthy of long nights of MTG talk, you might want a sturdy, responsive mouse pad on hand—hence the small plug below. And while you study the odds, remember to keep a sense of humor about probability’s quirks—the moment your opponent’s creature disappears is the moment the table remembers why we love this game. 🎲🎨