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Restrain and the Odds of Combat Control
If you’ve ever looked at a white instant and wondered, “What are the odds I’ll actually lock down this combat?” you’re not alone. Restrain, a humble common from the Invasion era, embodies a flavor of tempo and clarity that early gold sets did so well. For three mana you get not only a clean combat-suppressing effect but also a one-card payoff that can swing the momentum of a fight in your favor. 🧙🔥💎 In this practical probability guide, we’ll unpack how to think about the odds behind Restrain’s trigger—and why this little spell still earns its keep in certain matchups and formats."
What the card actually does
Restrain costs {2}{W} and reads: “Prevent all combat damage that would be dealt by target attacking creature this turn. Draw a card.” In practical terms, you pick one attacking creature (the spell requires a legal target), and for that combat you stop every point of damage that creature would deal in combat damage steps. You also replace that moment of damage with a single drawn card. It’s a tempo play: you buy time, you smooth the damage, and you replace the combat damage with card advantage. That single card draw doesn’t sound flashy, but it can be the spark that turns a losing race into a drawn-out grind where you outpace your opponent’s plan. ⚔️🎨"
Probability 101: When can you even cast it?
The crucial gating factor for Restrain is simple but sometimes overlooked: you must have a legal target, namely an attacking creature. If your opponent isn’t attacking at that moment or has no attacking creatures, there’s no legal target to choose, and the spell can’t resolve. So any probabilistic discussion starts with the probability that there is at least one attacking creature on the battlefield when you have priority to cast it on that turn. This makes Restrain both situational and surprisingly deterministic: if there’s an attacker, you can choose to intercept that attacker’s damage for that turn and draw a card; if there isn’t, Restrain simply can’t be cast. 🧠🔎
From a game-theory standpoint, the odds hinge on two factors: (1) how often your opponent commits attackers, and (2) how often you have a window to respond with Restrain. If your metagame is highly aggressive and creatures are frequently attacking, the chance you’ll have a valid target when you want it goes up. If you’re playing a slower control shell and your opponent holds back, the spell’s usefulness diminishes in that moment, even though its card draw is always a reliable secondary payoff. The math isn’t magic—it's about those micro-decisions in declare attackers and priority that decide whether a target exists at the moment you cast. 🧙♂️🪄
Concrete scenarios and illustrated odds
- One-attacker scenario: If your opponent attacks with a single creature and you have the mana to cast Restrain, there’s a guaranteed valid target as long as they’re attacking. In this narrow case, the probability of a successful cast is effectively 1 (assuming you’re at the table during that attack step). You’ll draw a card and you’ll prevent all damage from that one attacker this turn. That damage could be, say, a solid 2-3 points or more depending on the creature’s power. The payoff is clear: you dodge lethal damage and replace it with a card. ⚔️🃏
- Two attackers with a single-target choice: Suppose your opponent has two attackers and you can cast Restrain in response to declare attackers. You’ll still pick one attacking creature to nullify for that combat. The probability of having any legal target hinges on whether they actually attack with at least one creature. If they do, you get to choose one target and enjoy the damage prevention plus a draw. If they opt not to attack with either, there’s no legal target and your Restrain attempt fizzles. A practical way to think about it is: P(at least one attacker) times 1 (since you’ll always have a target if there is one). That’s the essence of the decision point. 🧠🎲
- Three-plus attackers in a heavy board state: With a fuller board, you’re more likely to see attackers, so the odds of a valid target rise. Even if the opponent arbitrarily blocks or doesn’t declare all-out aggression, a common heuristic is that a higher creature count correlates with higher attack probability. In these contexts, Restrain becomes a reliable little brick of interaction: you ensure one creature does zero damage for that turn, and you get a card in hand. The value here isn’t just the damage prevention; it’s the guaranteed card draw you receive for the mana you spent. 🧩💎
Scenarios with numbers (illustrative, not predictive)
To give a sense of scale, imagine a simplified game window where attacking behavior follows a few common patterns. These are not hard rules, but they illustrate how probability affects decision-making:
- Opponents with 1 attacking creature on a turn: high likelihood of a valid target if they choose to attack that turn. Probability of casting success (given they attack) ≈ 1.00.
- Opponents with 2 attacking creatures and a tendency to attack with at least one: probability of having a valid target ≈ 0.8–0.95 depending on aggression and board state.
- Opponents with 3+ attacking creatures and strong aggression: probability of a valid target tends to be high, often ≥0.9 when they’re in an all-out mode.
In all cases, the card draw is a certain 1 card on resolution, assuming you cast at a moment with a legal target. The tempo swing comes from not taking the damage for that turn, which can matter a lot in the swingy early-2000s style of Invasion-era games, where every point of damage and every extra card can decide a match. 🧙♀️⚡
Strategic takeaways for modern tables
- Timing matters: Because you need a target attacking creature, you’ll want to cast Restrain during a moment when your opponent has declared attackers and you have priority. If you’re not sure whether they’ll attack, you may hold the spell for a more decisive moment—especially against decks that love multi-attacker pushers. 🎯
- Card draw is not a bonus, it’s a payoff: In practice, Restrain bills as a 3-mana interaction that converts into tempo and card advantage. In control mirrors or limited formats, that steady trickle of value can turn a game around after a big swing. 🧭
- Board state dictates value: If your opponent’s board is a menagerie of evasive creatures, the spell’s impact may be muted until you can guarantee a meaningful target; still, the guaranteed draw remains valuable. 🗺️
- Deck-building note: In limited environments or casual play, including Restrain in a white-heavy shell adds a reliable answer to aggressive starts, while also blessing you with late-game card draw when you’re holding on by a thread. 🎲
“Hanna would give up her own life before she'd abandon the Weatherlight." —Sisay
That flavor quote is a wink toward resilience—the same spirit you chase when you time Restrain to blunt a forcing attack and buy a breath of air for your plan. The Invasion set gave us a white instant with practical odds and a neat card-draw twist, and it still resonates with fans who love tempo, math, and a little old-school charm. 🎨
If you’re mapping out a strategy session or just craving a tactile reminder of MTG’s early days, consider pairing your next deck with a modern accessory that keeps your game on point and your gear protected. This product blurb-friendly treat could fit nicely into your game-night ritual—and yes, it pairs better with deck-building than you might think. 🧙💥